JediHog's Poker Musings

Overvaluing Pocket Pairs

Ok, I'm sitting at a S&G last night, 5th or 6th hand of the night. So far, nothing spectacular has come down for me (besides the Ax that seem to frequent my hole cards). I'm UTG and I see KK hit my hand. Sweet, nice way to start off the tourney. I raise it to 100 (blinds were 10-20). UTG+2 calls, and 2 other callers. Flop comes 10s 4h 3d. I bet 200, UTG+2 calls, the rest fold. Turn comes a Js. I bet 350 (leaving me with 275 in chips), UTG+2 calls. I have no idea why he is calling, unless he limped with a 44 or 56. Turn is a Qs. I go all in, he calls and flips over A3s for the rivered flush. I'm out of the tourney in 7th place.

I have a hard time with pocket pairs likee JJ, QQ, KK, or AA. I know they are great hands and I want to get the most money I can for them...but too often I don't make sure I win the pot regardless. Case in point above. Had I made a bigger bet on the flop, say 500 (3/4 of my and UTG+2 chipstack), UTG+2 likely would have folded . But when that spade hit on the turn, it was almost a given that he was going to call any and all bets I made in hopes of hitting his flush. Unfortunately, he hit his flush, and I'm sent packing.

How did I lose the hand?

First, my pre-flop raise was not enough to get rid of someone with A3 suited. Sure that's a good hand with 3 or 4 players, but not with 10 players. I didn't have time to figure out if this guy was a wild caller, so there's no way for me to know that he's going to call my pre-flop raise. I think I should've raised more to isolate the overcard players, and should there not have been any of those, I take the blinds and move on. Instead, I get greedy thinking that my KK is a dynamite hand that only loses to Aces. So instead of being up a few blinds, I'm out of the tourney.

When the flop hit, my 1/2 pot sized bet was too weak, and didn't tell my opponent that I had a strong hand. If anything it told him that I had a middle to high pair, and wasn't that confident in it. I should have thrown out a 500 bet at the flop to get rid of someone who did hit their flop/draw, and move on.

Once the turn hit, my opponent was pot committed and was going to see the river regardless. SO I lost my hand on the flop.

Overvaluing a pocket pair is easy to do because seeing 2 of the same in your hand just looks so good. But, at the end of the day a pocket pair is just that, a pair. Statistically you have a 1 in 8 chance of hitting a set on the flop-turn-river, so it's a good idea to play that hand, but don't play it to bleed folks out of money, play it to win.

A good lesson to learn.

posted by jedihog @ 8:34 AM